[1772] - Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

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Citation
Knist, S., Goergen, K., Simmer, C., 2018. Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe. Climate Dynamics, . DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x.
Identification
Title(s):Main Title: Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe
Description(s):Abstract: We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are down- scaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realisti- cally compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature–extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) scaling rate of ~ 7% K−1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited condi- tions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature–extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K−1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C–C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.
Identifier(s):DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x
Responsible Party
Creator(s):Author: Sebastian Knist
Author: Klaus Goergen
Author: Clemens Simmer
Publisher:Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Topic
TR32 Topic:Atmosphere
Related Sub-project(s):C4
Subject(s):CRC/TR32 Keywords: Modelling
File Details
File Name:Knist_et_al_2018_Climate_Dynamics.pdf
Data Type:Text
File Size:15214 kB (14.857 MB)
Date(s):Date Accepted: 2018-02-15
Mime Type:application/pdf
Data Format:PDF
Language:English
Status:Completed
Constraints
Download Permission:Free
General Access and Use Conditions:According to the TR32DB data policy agreement.
Access Limitations:According to the TR32DB data policy agreement.
Geographic
North:-no map data
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Measurement Region:None
Measurement Location:--None--
Specific Informations - Publication
Status:Published
Review:NoPeerReview
Year:2018
Type:Article
Article Type:Journal
Source:Climate Dynamics
Issue:Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling
Metadata Details
Metadata Creator:Sebastian Knist
Metadata Created:2018-03-08
Metadata Last Updated:2018-03-16
Subproject:C4
Funding Phase:3
Metadata Language:English
Metadata Version:V42
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