[650] - Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the rothamsted carbon model: A bayesian perspective

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Scharnagl, B., Vrugt, J. A., Vereecken, H., Herbst, M., 2010. Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the rothamsted carbon model: A bayesian perspective. Biogeosciences, 7, 763 - 776. DOI: 10.5194/bg-7-763-2010.
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Title(s):Main Title: Information content of incubation experiments for inverse estimation of pools in the rothamsted carbon model: A bayesian perspective
Description(s):Abstract: A major drawback of current soil organic carbon (SOC) models is that their conceptually defined pools do not necessarily correspond to measurable SOC fractions in real practice. This not only impairs our ability to rigorously evaluate SOC models but also makes it difficult to derive accurate initial states of the individual carbon pools. In this study, we tested the feasibility of inverse modelling for estimating pools in the Rothamsted carbon model (ROTHC) using mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments. This inverse approach may provide an alternative to existing SOC fractionation methods. To illustrate our approach, we used a time series of synthetically generated mineralization rates using the ROTHC model. We adopted a Bayesian approach using the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to infer probability density functions of the various carbon pools at the start of incubation. The Kullback-Leibler divergence was used to quantify the information content of the mineralization rate data. Our results indicate that measured mineralization rates generally provided sufficient information to reliably estimate all carbon pools in the ROTHC model. The incubation time necessary to appropriately constrain all pools was about 900 days. The use of prior information on microbial biomass carbon significantly reduced the uncertainty of the initial carbon pools, decreasing the required incubation time to about 600 days. Simultaneous estimation of initial carbon pools and decomposition rate constants significantly increased the uncertainty of the carbon pools. This effect was most pronounced for the intermediate and slow pools. Altogether, our results demonstrate that it is particularly difficult to derive reasonable estimates of the humified organic matter pool and the inert organic matter pool from inverse modelling of mineralization rates observed during incubation experiments.
Identifier(s):DOI: 10.5194/bg-7-763-2010
Responsible Party
Creator(s):Author: Benedikt Scharnagl
Author: Jasper A. Vrugt
Author: Harry Vereecken
Author: Michael Herbst
Publisher:European Geosciences Union
TR32 Topic:Soil
Subject(s):CRC/TR32 Keywords: SOC, Inverse Parameter Estimation, Carbon Modelling
File Details
File Name:2010_Scharnagl_Biogeosciences.pdf
Data Type:Text
Size(s):14 Pages
File Size:499 kB (0.487 MB)
Date(s):Date Accepted: 2010-02-23
Issued: 2010-02-25
Mime Type:application/pdf
Data Format:PDF
Download Permission:OnlyTR32
General Access and Use Conditions:For internal use only
Access Limitations:For internal use only
Licence:TR32DB Data policy agreement
North:-no map data
Measurement Region:Other
Measurement Location:--Other--
Specific Informations - Publication
Article Type:Journal
Number Of Pages:14
Page Range:763 - 776
Metadata Details
Metadata Creator:Benedikt Scharnagl
Metadata Created:2013-12-02
Metadata Last Updated:2013-12-02
Funding Phase:1
Metadata Language:English
Metadata Version:V40
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